Welcome to the 4th issue of Bizjet Buzz.

Between my day to day as a jet salesman, I’ve been working tirelessly in the Bizjet Buzz lab solving a problem.

When you search online for a business jet market index you can’t find one.

So, how are we supposed to know if we’re in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?

In the issue:

OK, now don’t get all…”Oh my god! Isn’t Colin amazing. He’s developed a free jet market index for us. A real public servant”

Be under no illusion, this index is as much for me as it is for you. As a jet broker, I’m supposed to be the master of the market.

Me not knowing what the jet market is doing is like a weatherman not knowing that Hurricane Beryl bashed the Caribbean this week.

On a panel recently at an event in Chicago, the Summer Aviation Summit, I was asked a question.

My answer was accurate but I would’ve loved to have data, on the spot, to back it up. Like a scale of 1-10 or an index that gives us a read on the market.

I searched for something like it online and was unsuccessful. I decided I’d make my own.

Having read Bizjet Buzz No.2 and No.3, you’ll know that I’m a little obsessed with the fundamentals, Supply & Demand.

For good reason! Studying the interaction of these two forces tells us whether there’s upward pressure on aircraft values or downward. Pretty important stuff when you’re in a price negotiation on a jet.

What direction is the market headed? Are we going up? Are we going down? Or are we just cruising? In aviation terms… What’s our angle of attack?

To answer this we must know how many aircraft are trading and how quickly they’re being replaced on the market. That gives us a read on demand (Number of transactions) and supply (Number of jets for sale). This is the foundation of the Bizjet Buzz Market Index.

I brought the engineer within out of retirement and put all my nerd skills to use. One evening I was sucked so deep into a spreadsheet that an hour became two and two became three. Soon, the night had vanished with the rising sun. What about the task? Did it get done?

You bet it did!

Behold! - The Bizjet Buzz Market Index:

On May 31st it read 4.1 - Seller market territory.

4.1 means nothing without some context. So let’s look at the index over the last 40 years. Back then there were nearly 5,000 jets. Today the index tracks just over 24,000.

Now you know what I mean by Off. The. Chart. Look how crazy the market was during the The Great Pandemic-Induced Bizjet Boom in 2021/2022.

The highest data point on that chart is December 2021. Almost 1,000 jets were for sale and AMSTAT recorded 493 transactions.

Half the market sold! That’s insane and therefore I’m convinced we won’t see it again for a very, very long time. If we do it will send the Bizjet Buzz Market Index Gyro into a spin.

Now that we have something to give us a read on the market, we can start to have some fun. And by fun I mean a punt, a bet, a gamble.

What will the Bizjet Buzz Market Index Gyro read 3 months from now? On October 5th?

It gets better, I’m willing to put up some prize money. I’ll give a $100 Amazon voucher to the subscriber who gets the closest.

There’s a catch. This isn’t Draft Kings or Betfair. Ain’t no free bets around here.

You can send your prediction and you might have the glory of winning. I’ll even give you a shout out in the newsletter if you win.

But to qualify for the $100 voucher you must tell two of your friends about Bizjet Buzz.

I keep you up to date with the jet market every month. I just developed the coolest jet market index the industry has ever seen, for us. AND! I make you laugh or at least smile.

Do me a solid… Tell your friends about Bizjet Buzz.

All jokes aside, I hope you’re enjoying this issue of Bizjet Buzz and that all is well.

I’ll leave you with the usuals below.

Live the buzz! 🐝

Colin

Expect to see the ‘Bizjet Buzz Market Index Gyro’ here in the future.

Here’s the last three months:

There’s a prize for anyone who can come up with a better name for gyro. Send your suggestions to [email protected].

The creative pilots among us might help. You guys know exactly it mimics. It’s the Attitude Indicator found in a cockpit. Also know as an Artificial Horizon or Gyro Horizon

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Happy Independence day to you!

I moved to the US last year and I have to say… I’m having a blast!

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Thanks for reading all the to the end. Goodbye Blue Sky. 👋🏼

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational and not advice for investments or financial decisions. Any and all opinions herein are the personal opinions of the author, Colin Dunne, unless stated otherwise.