Plus…how many Challenger 604s are for sale?

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In this issue:

🛩️ Inventory just won’t recover, WHY?

📈 Bombardier Challenger 604 market focus

Note: The Market Stats Infographic above is updated every month and lags one month until the data has caught up.

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We’re at that point…

That point in a market cycle where Uber drivers are telling you that buying a jet is a great investment.

“Just raise $10mil for a deposit and place an order with Gulfstream,” he says.

“I know a guy on TikTok that can flip it for you.”

This usually means we’re in a bubble. When it pops, everyone owning the asset in question is left standing around with their pants down.

But we’re not in a bubble. None of the data says we are. In fact, it says otherwise.

After reading this you'll understand why.

To simplify, we’re going to focus on the top end of the market, heavy jets <10 years old only.

The newest large cabin, long range aircraft…the top of the pops!

Being…

Bombardier’s Global 5000, 6000, 5500, 6500, 7500, 8000

Dassault’s Falcon 900LX, 6X, 7X, 8X

Gulfstream’s G450 (a few of the later ones), G550, G650/ER, G500, G600, G700, G800

Here’s what the availability of these has looked like since 2019. The percentage of them available for sale. Other jet categories follow a similar trend.

The pandemic rush in 2020/21 reduced inventory to record lows. Stocks replenished and peaked in 2024. 2025/26 came along to undo most of that.

Today 3.4% of the long range fleet is available for sale. Not as low as the 1.4% in 2022, but well below the 5.8% pre-pandemic.

So, what happened since 2024 that caused such a dramatic drop in long range inventory?

Why is it not recovering to the 5.8% availability pre-pandemic?

There are two sides to every story - In this story, one side is Supply, the other, Demand.

When it comes to supply, the OEMs can/will only build so many jets.

Bombardier, Gulfstream and Dassault are currently the only players in this category. (Does Embraer plan to enter the game? 🤔)

If we consider only the long range jets from these manufacturers, removing Bombardier’s Challenger 3500 and 650, Dassault’s Falcon 2000LXS and Gulfstream’s G280…

The chart looks like this.

In 2025, 38 new long range jets were added to the global fleet.

If you didn’t get one of these and want a jet today, without a two year wait for a new one, you’re shopping in the pre-owned market.

This market…

Is 38 jets enough to satisfy current demand?

Based on the level of activity in the pre-owned market, I would say no.

In January 2025 there were 163 long range jets for sale. In Jan 2026 132 left. Today 124 are available.

What about the other side to the story, Demand?

Two things need to happen if the world is going to sustain this level of demand. We need a stable economy and an increase in wealth.

We have both right now.

Inflation is running just under 3%, above the 2% target and the Fed is holding interest rates steady.

Unemployment sits at 4.2% as of June 2026, historically low and consistent with a stable labor market.

US GDP growth has been moderate, around 1.5 to 2% annualized in 2026.

This is a calm, stable economy, the type that supports confident big-ticket spending among wealthy buyers.

What about wealth increase?

This is where it gets interesting.

UBS, in their ‘2026 Global Wealth Report’ reported that 2025 was the third consecutive year of wealth growth. An increase of 10.8% in 2025 and the fastest since 2017.

Altrata, a wealth intelligence platform, in their ‘World Ultra Wealth Report 2026’ reports “In 2025 the size of the UHNW ($30m+ net worth) population rose at its fastest pace in eight years”

Altrata also reports that since 2015 the number of centi-millionaires ($100m+) has doubled.

And finally here’s the growth of the world’s billionaire population.

Don’t know about you, but if I was a UHNWI ($30m+) I’d be flying private at least a few times a year.

If I was a centi-millionaire ($100m+) I’d be in a PJ for all my trips.

If I was a billionaire I’d own my own long range jet.

Since 2015 the global fleet of long range jets has grown by ~50%, whereas the number of centi-millionaires has doubled and the number of billionaires is up 90%.

The world is getting wealthier at a faster pace than the OEMs are delivering jets.

And that’s why the OEM backlogs are so long and the pre-owned market is getting cleared out.

A bubble needs oversupply and demand close to the cliff edge. We have neither.

The Bill Lear-designed Challenger 600, first delivered in 1980, evolved into the whole 600 series, the 601, 604, 605 and the current production model, the Challenger 650.

The 600 was also the basis of the Bombardier CRJ, which you’ve probably flown in with a regional airline.

The 604 model sits somewhere in the middle of the Challenger 600 series produced between 1996 and 2007. 344 604s are in service, but there are over a thousand of the 600 series.

It’s a 4,000 nm machine carrying 8-12 pax in a very spacious cabin.

Owners and charter operators love them because they’re cheap and you get a lot of aircraft.

Not only that, with so many in service, the parts pool is large and support level is high. Two necessities to keep an old jet in the air.

Here’s what the market for the 604 has been doing since 2019.

Prices range from $3.5-8.5m not really dependent on the year model or total time either.

Being such an old model, ~20 years on average, the depreciation curve has flatlined.

Values are dependent on the aircraft maintenance, equipment upgrades and paint and interior refurbs.

A 96 month inspection can cost you up to ~$1mil.

To retrofit a Collins Pro Line Fusion avionics suite costs ~$700k. Starlink WiFi is ~$300k.

A new paint job costs ~$250k and a new interior anywhere from $200-800k depending on how wild you go and whether you install a new cabin management system.

With 28 for sale, there are ample options to choose from. But buyer beware, you need to find a good one.

These are old machines with histories both good and bad. Entering a hard deal on the wrong one could turn out to be a mistake.

Interested in a specific jet market? Email [email protected] so it’s in the next one.

Are we in a Buyer market or a Seller market?

Which side do current jet market conditions favour?